Vinod's Blog
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Monday, March 17, 2003 - 08:15 PM Permanent link for France & UNSC
France & UNSC

I just watched Dubya's address to the nation and I'm still impressed by Bush's ability to make lemonade out of lemons.   Of particular note was how crisply / deftly he set aside the future of France / the UN in managing next steps in Iraq in favor of the coalition of the willing.  The result is the exact opposite of what so many in the UN wanted -- we are more free -- morally and politically -- to act in our exclusive interests than we were just a few days ago.  And what must really chap the hide (to use a Texan-ism) was that it was all of their grandstanding that gave us the political capital to do this.

If France hadn't been so vocal (nay, obnoxious) in their intention to veto any US resolution regardless of content, they might have had a chance to actually exercise their uber-weapon and cling to some semblance of relevance and influence over the world order.   In a way, France tried to play their own version of the Post-Modern Mutual-Assured-Destruction card in the UNSC and lost.   They said "go ahead and try to play this game with me" knowing that if the US introduced the bill to France's veto, there would have been egg on our face and thus a behavioral check on America.

But Bush said, "well, in that case, I'm playing a different game."

Like military deterrence, clearly signalling your intentions & capabilities beforehand averts the need to use war as a weapon.   In this case however, the venue of war for France was the debate table and and the weapon was their veto power.  BUT, clear signalling resulted in not having even the opportunity to use the weapon.  AND, the perverse reality faced by France was that it's precisely the promise of a diplomatic war that gave them their precious relevance on the world stage.  

I can only imagine how France is planning to seek diplomatic revenge & redemption against the US.   Tommy Franks before the ICC?   Or even Bush?  EU exclusion for any nation that supported the US position?  In an ideal case, expect to see some concessions from France as they do what it takes to get a seat at our Table.


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