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Saturday, October 12, 2002 - 01:24 PM Permanent link for ralph peters:  fighting in Iraq
ralph peters: fighting in Iraq

(via USS Clueless).   Steven Den Beste links to this OpEd by Ralph Peters carried in the NYPost.  Ralph makes several very intelligent, and well articulated points:

...The best-informed insist we will hit the Iraqi regime with such overwhelming, unexpected fury that the world will be shocked by our effectiveness.

And that is what Saddam's defenders fear, whether they are in the Middle East or in the middle of their congressional terms. This debate is about dogma, as philosophical derelicts attempt to salvage their homegrown anti-Americanism. The liberation of Iraq would discredit their outdated doctrines of Leftist liberation

...Make no mistake: The anti-war voices long for us to lose any war they cannot prevent.

Peters' last point is salient.  Many Arab scholars have said that most individuals in the Middle East and nearly all individuals in Iraq would prefer to see Saddam gone.   They just wish it wasn't the US who actually made it happen.   The rationale is relatively simple and based in classical motivations -- their pride is hurt when they see someone else do what they couldn't/can't.  

Peters extends this to (some of) the anti-war crowd -- it's bad enough that sit-ins, protest rallies, UN resolutions, and letters from orphaned children can't stop Saddam.   They will feel doubly bad about the prospect that the other side's technique may actually work.

Ralph goes through some discussion of the various theories & projections for American casualty count figures should a war happen (e.g. urban fighting a la Stalingrad, chemical weapons used against US troops in Saddam's death throes, etc.).    He also provides excellent support data for one of my favorite arguments -- our real goal is to scare the crap out of them; not necessarily to fight 'em:

Instead of reveling in their fears, the domestic opponents of our just war should try to envision the panic among Saddam's cronies these days. I guarantee you that, this minute, Saddam is so jumpy he's purging the very men he needs to make war. And his underlings are calculating the odds. His generals do not want to die for Saddam. Their goal is to outlive him.

Folks, in this situation, more pressure = fewer casualties.    It seems prima facie oxymoronic, as did Mutual Assured Destruction, but it works.


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