I'll admit it, I've been absolutely ADDICTED to The Apprentice for the past few weeks.    No TV show has captured me like this since the History Channel's profile of the Barbarians (ok.. that's a joke).  Unless you've been under a rock, you know that this Thursday night is the finale that all of America is waiting for.   It's down to 2 and millions of us will be glued to our TV's to see how it plays out.

I think Bill deserves to win - he's been cool under pressure - but still engaged, demonstrates more task-focused energy than Kwame, and is not as afraid to get his hands dirty.  He's certainly got a better win/loss record than Kwame.

Kwame might change some of the low energy / hands-off-ness that he's been criticized about in this final episode (especially given Omarosa...) but probably not enough to float my boat.   Kwame's got the sterling degree, table manners, and wardrobe but just doesn't seem like the kind of guy you put in charge of a complex, multi-person task.   He's more the slick management consultant / financial analyst who cranks out killer Powerpoints and spreadsheets and is perfect for wining & dining the client.   He isn't the gritty manager that delivers a beat-down when needed and who isn't afraid to "drown a few puppies" if required to get the task done.   However, something else tells me that, despite my best intentions, Kwame will actually be the winner and this is where I'll put my $$$.

How will this play out?   Well, I think Ann Althouse put together a good narrative -

Omarosa screws up one thing after another and as she gets into amusing catfights with Heidi. The audience will be led, by skillful editing, to believe Kwame is going down and Bill is coasting toward victory. Then, at the last moment (where everything always happens in these competitions), Kwame will say to Omarosa, "You're fired!"--which will seems really exciting and cool. On the basis of that brilliant move, firing Omarosa (which in reality any fool would do), Kwame will be recognized as the true leader and will win the game.

I think the real nugget is something I mentioned in a comment on Oliver's blog - Trump's opening monologue at the begining of each episode has been a key tool for predicting the winner.   The message appears to be composed in editing after the episode has been filmed and is designed to leave us in awe of his all-around business savvy.  There's a lot of incentive for the show producers to make the speech elegantly tie into the conclusion of each episode - particularly if there are a lot of twists! - and thereby maintain the aura of Trump's business omniscience.  This observation was very helpful, for ex., in predicting which team would win the Art of the Deal episode (passion for the product, young Padawan, is everything...)

In last week's cliffhanger episode, Trump's message was about the value of loyalty to the leader - who on the show could've possibly demonstrated more mutual loyalty than Troy & Kwame?   Bill has no one on his team who would go to bat for him the same way & who would bail him out if he's making a big mistake (possibly Amy?  certainly not Katrina or Nick).  So, my addendum to Althouse's prediction for how this plays out --

Omarosa screws up as usual.  Troy forces Kwame to take a stand while simultaneously picking up her slack.   Kwame fires her - or, more likely, reassigns her from logistics to some soft, cushy role (which is why she's later goofing around on stage and in funky hats in the commercial teasers).  Troy pulls double duty and does a lot of the energetic, hands-on work that would otherwise be Kwame's key weakness vs. Bill.   Thus, Troy becomes the driving force that pushes Kwame's polished smile to final victory.

Bill can win if he nails everything.   Kwame wins if Troy nails everything.  If it plays out this way, Kwame had better buy Troy one hell of a steak + martini dinner.  Either way, it will be some quality Thursday night television.  

What do you think?

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UPDATE - MSNBC's Jesamyn Go solidly votes for Bill. The live vote on the site is split an even 50/50. Reality TV at it's best ;-)

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UPDATE2 - OK... so I was wrong. Bill took it BUT, Omarosa was still the deciding factor.   Kwame didn't step up to deal with her (as expected).   However, a total surprise to me, Troy didn't just refrain from stepping up to help but was apparently part of the problem as well.   Nevertheless, in the end, Trump made the right choice and I was fundamentally betting on him making the wrong one.

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