Vinod's Blog
Random musings from a libertarian, tech geek...
Thursday, October 28, 2004 - 08:16 AM Permanent link for Checking in on N. Korea
Checking in on N. Korea

Strategypage reports -

October 28, 2004: In September and October China deployed up to 150,000 troops (five divisions) in Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture, bordering North Korea, to deter Pyongyang’s nuclear build-up and to stifle mounting violence from rogue (and likely starving) North Korean soldiers. Large troop movements and new military barracks reportedly have also been seen in bordering towns. There has also been a marked increase in Chinese PLA Air Force flights in the area. The troops were being deployed in part to help stem the flow of North Korean refugees fleeing to China to escape famine and poverty. To make matters worse, other growing problems involve alleged atrocities committed by North Korean soldiers against ethnic Koreans, and China’s two year effort repatriate illegal North Koreans in China. Hungry, poorly disciplined North Korean soldiers have reportedly been crossing into China in large numbers and causing trouble at the local level. True to form, China’s foreign ministry has refused to confirm or deny the deployment of PLA troops to the area.

An August meeting in Beijing among the US, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China and Russia failed to solve the impasse over Pyongyang’s suspected nuclear weapons programs. The issue of nuclear weapons proliferation among rogue nations and terrorists remains one of the world’s most pressing, with little likelihood of successful resolution in the foreseeable future. Recently, North Korea’s “Dear Leader” Kim Jong Il was quoted as saying that ‘a world without North Korea should be blown up.’ – K.B. Sherman

Now, from where I sit, I actually see the tiniest bit of real progress against the "impasse".    Namely, that fact that China is actually stepping up far more than in the past to do something about N. Korea.   5 divisions is some pretty serious stuff and one can readily assume that the ROE (Rules of Engagement) that the average Chinese grunt has to deal with are far looser than their American equivalents.  

Critics (particularly of the Bush Administration) like to pretend that somehow all the cards for dealing with N. Korea are in our hands & that Bush for some reason simply chooses not to play them (incompetence?  arrogance?  Oil?  Halliburton?).   BUT, in this circumstance, China holds at least 3 of the cards necessary to make the full house.  (With Japan / S. Korea probably holding one as well).  

The same folks who decried the supposed unilateralism in Iraq are now calling for bi-lateral talks between the US and N. Korea -

Democrat John Kerry has said he would open direct talks with the North Koreans in addition to continuing multinational discussions. The North Koreans appear to be waiting until after the U.S. election to return to negotiations, hoping for a Kerry win or a better offer from President Bush.

Methinks that 150,000 Chinese troops on the northern border are a rather plain indicator of why the N. Koreans think they'll secure more fruits of aggression out of us (and Kerry) vs. the Chinese.


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